Romania's central bank keeps key rate at 6.5%

The BNR also kept the interest rate for the lending facility (Lombard) at 7.50% and the deposit facility rate at 5.50%, as well as maintaining the current levels of minimum reserve requirements for both leu-denominated and foreign currency liabilities of credit institutions.

The annual rate of adjusted CORE2 inflation continued its anticipated decline at a faster pace, falling to 5% in February 2025 from 5.6% in December 2024. This was mainly due to disinflationary base effects in non-food items and lower import prices, partially offset by rising agri-food commodity prices and wage costs.

The annual inflation rate is expected to record a moderate increase in Q2 2025, relatively in line with previous forecasts, due to unfavourable base effects associated with energy and food price developments in the same period of the previous year, according to the BNR.

In January 2025, retail sales growth slowed significantly, and services to the public slightly decreased year-on-year. Conversely, construction work volume saw a large annual increase, moving strongly into positive territory, primarily due to shifts in residential and engineering projects, according to the central bank analysis.

However, industrial output contracted annually, and export growth slowed more than imports compared to Q4 2024, widening the negative trade gap. Consequently, the trade deficit's annual increase accelerated sharply in January 2025 versus Q4 2024, but the current account deficit's growth considerably eased due to large EU grant inflows.

In the labour market, the number of employees grew in December 2024 and January 2025, and the ILO unemployment rate slightly decreased over the first two months of this year, after rising and remaining at an average value of 5.7% in H2 2024.

The central bank lowered last year the key interest rate, in July from 7% to 6.75%, and in August to 6.5%.