The year begins in a geopolitical climate marked by uncertainty comparable to the most tense moments of the past decade. While financial markets appear to overlook escalating geopolitical tensions, economic fundamentals point to slower growth, with risks concentrated around inflation, fiscal policies and geopolitical stability.

CEE is expected to record slight acceleration in economic growth in 2026, with more prospects in 2027. The recovery is mainly supported by a rebound in domestic demand, rising real incomes and stabilisation of macroeconomic conditions, but disparities between economies are widening. Poland and the Czech Republic continue to outperform the regional average, benefiting from more public and private investments, efficient absorption of European funds and a more balanced macroeconomic framework. In contrast, economies such as Romania and Hungary are experiencing slower recovery, affected by high inflation, persistent macroeconomic imbalances and a fragile investment climate.

Although inflation has entered a downward trend across most of CEE, Romania follows a distinct trajectory driven by high food and services prices, as well as fiscal measures with direct impact on costs. "Persistent inflation prolongs the period of high interest rates and significantly limits the ability to stimulate the economy through monetary policy," analysts noted. A fragile fiscal position and persistent external imbalances increase the sensitivity of the Romanian economy to confidence shocks.

For companies in CEE, the macroeconomic environment remains challenging, characterised by restrictive financial conditions, uncertainty regarding demand evolution and persistently high financing costs. In Romania, these constraints are more pronounced, amplified by rising labour costs, still-elevated interest rates and the extension of payment delays along commercial chains. Analysts expect the CEE economies to continue recovering in the coming years, albeit at an uneven pace, while economies characterised by high inflation and limited fiscal space, such as Romania, will remain vulnerable to economic and financial risks.