New tariffs imposed by the US on goods from the EU could significantly impact Romanian exporting firms, particularly those in the metallurgical and automotive sectors, finds an analysis of the National Bank of Romania (BNR).
While Romania's direct export exposure to the US market is relatively modest, accounting for only 2.5% of total exports in 2024, the indirect effects through key European partners pose a more substantial threat.
Should tariffs remain at their April 2025 levels, potential losses for Romanian firms could reach up to a third of their export value to the US, with the metallurgical industry being most affected. An increase in tariffs from 10% to 50% for EU goods could further extend these losses to other sectors, including electrical equipment manufacturing and machinery production, according to the analysis.
Despite the seemingly low overall percentage, exports to the US are handled by a concentrated group of 346 firms, which collectively generate a significant 28% of Romania's total exports in 2024. These companies are highly dependent on export activities, with foreign sales accounting for 82% of their turnover (median value, 2023 data).
However, the more significant concern for Romania lies in the indirect commercial impact, primarily through its strong ties with major Eurozone trading partners like Germany, Italy, and France. These countries account for a substantial share of European exports to the US. A slowdown in their economic activity, triggered by decreased external demand and heightened uncertainty due to the tariffs, could reduce demand for Romanian exports.
Germany, as Romania's principal trading partner, received 20.5% of Romania's total exports in 2024, far outpacing Italy (9.5%) and France (6.3%). Germany is also a crucial source of FDI in Romania.
Therefore, US tariffs on the EU could lead to adverse indirect effects, including a reduction in demand for Romanian goods from German companies in both the short and medium-to-long term, as business strategies regarding production and investment are adjusted.
