Southeast European countries have experienced strong growth since 2016, and the projected stagnation suggests these markets will largely retain their high output.
Southeast European construction markets outlook to 2027
"Croatia and Bulgaria could see some expansion, Romania goes down, but nothing dramatic, Serbia stays around its peak and Slovenia could plunge a bit before turning upward again," states the EECFA report.
Bulgaria's total construction output is anticipated to grow by an average of 3% between 2025 and 2027, with a stronger mid-period performance driven by the absorption of operational programmes and the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan.
Yasen Georgiev of the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) notes that "non-residential construction and particularly civil engineering are predicted to see stronger growth figures" in Bulgaria, while residential construction is expected to be the weakest subsector.
In Croatia, construction remains vibrant due to the combination of continuing transitioning-economy catch-up growth and large inflows of EU money, according to Michael Glazer (SEE Regional Advisors) and Tatjana Halapija (Nada Projekt), EECFA's Croatian members.
However, both factors are beginning to diminish, potentially affecting all construction segments. Civil engineering, in particular, continues to benefit significantly from EU funding, with substantial catch-up construction still needed for the country's infrastructure.
Romania's macroeconomic outlook, while positive, is "more reserved as the political instability and fiscal uncertainty have done little to improve growth opportunities," explains Dr. Sebastian Sipos-Gug, EECFA's Romanian researcher at Ebuild. He adds that "the country has the largest government deficit in the EU, which will dampen public investment capabilities," potentially impacting civil engineering negatively.
This is a concern, as civil engineering countered declines in other construction segments in 2024, leading to a negative outlook for total construction in 2025 and 2026 in real terms. However, he added that "as inflation and interest rates come down, and employment indicators remain strong, private consumption could boost demand for residential and non-residential construction".
Serbia's construction sector is seeing "new gains in building construction, while civil engineering has entered a period of consolidation after the strong expansion during 2023 and 2024," says Dejan Krajinović, EECFA's Serbian researcher at Beobuild. The hosting of EXPO 2027 in Belgrade is a significant boost, particularly for non-residential construction.
Slovenia's total construction output is expected to decrease from its historic high of €5.5 billion in 2023, potentially contracting in both 2024 and 2025 but remaining above €5 billion annually. Dr. Aleš Pustovrh at Bogatin, EECFA's Slovenian member institute, predicts a return to growth in 2026 and 2027, largely driven by residential construction buoyed by decreasing mortgage rates.
Eastern European construction markets up to 2027
In Eastern Europe, Russia is anticipated to maintain its peak construction levels, while Turkey is recovering from a low point, albeit slower than previously expected. Ukraine's construction industry shows signs of recovery despite the ongoing conflict, supported by programs financing new facilities and infrastructure reconstruction.
Professor Sergii Zapototskyi at Uvecon, EECFA Ukraine, states that reconstruction would require $486 billion.
